Iran, towards post-Vienna

13 May 2022

The talks in Vienna on the JCPOA seem destined to fail. Significant differences (some guarantees requested by Moscow and the inclusion of the IRGC among FTOs) have become even more pronounced due to the war in Ukraine.

The conflict is likely to have modified the timing and aims of the negotiations on the Iran nuclear deal. Given the new situation, it is practically impossible to return to the 2015 deal and more reasonable to expect a complete overhaul of the agreement. In the short-term, a suspension / temporary technical halt in the talks appears to be on the cards, resuming after the US mid-term elections in November.

The composition of the new Congress and developments in the war in Ukraine could trigger the resumption of the negotiations. A change to the sanctions regimen in 2022 is unlikely.

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